A year ago, the conventional Beltway wisdom had it that Iraq was a failed state. Today, the same wisdom holds that it is less chaotic but still fragile, dependent entirely on a U.S. presence to survive. But judging by recent comments from Nouri al-Maliki, even this view may be out of date.
Addressing Arab ambassadors in Abu Dhabi on Monday, the Iraqi prime minister made headlines by saying his government was "looking at the necessity of terminating the foreign presence on Iraqi lands and restoring full sovereignty." Mr. Maliki has also been playing hardball with the Bush Administration in concluding a status-of-forces agreement by the end of the year, when the current U.N. mandate authorizing the U.S. presence in Iraq expires.
More important, Iraq seems to have been able to consolidate the security gains achieved by the surge, even as the last of the surge brigades deployed in 2007 are now returning to the U.S. That makes further reductions in U.S. force levels look increasingly plausible, a further validation of President Bush's "return on success" strategy.
Mr. Maliki's comments were also designed for domestic Iraqi political consumption – another sign of that country's robust democratic debate. With elections scheduled for the autumn, Mr. Maliki wants to show he's nobody's pawn, especially not America's. The Sadrists continue to play the nationalist card, even as they are themselves pawns of Iran. The rise of Iraqi nationalism is inevitable and largely welcome as a unifying national force. Remember all of those who said an Iraqi Shiite government would merely be a tool of Iran?
Article nicely sums it up, its great news. I've seen Iraq go from near chaos and genocide to present day's turnaround which has been nothing short of miraculous, thanks to the surge strategy. This is a major victory for the US and a huge defeat for the forces of evil: Al Qaeda and their ilk.
Maliki's getting ahead of himself, but his boldness in expecting a timetable for withdrawal is a projection of security and confidence, its good to see. There's still bigger fish to fry however like Iran and Hezbollah, so I'm sure we haven't seen the end of it.
The Maliki government talks tough but without US assistance its questionable whether they could control the Kurds, the Sunnis and the Sadr militias. A complete pull out of US troops within 16 months of an Obama victory will be a good test of this Iraqi nationalism. Maliki may have to join with Sadr to maintain a Shiite control of the country if Saudi Arabia continues supporting the Sunnis and the Kurds seek autonomy.
You're in Easy Mode. If you prefer, you can use XHTML Mode instead. |